Matthew On A Rampage

Wind speed probabilities for Matthew. National Hurricane Center graphic.

Matthew has passed us. We knew him as a toddler with a mild tantrum. By now, however, he's turned into a ranging teenager. Unfortunately, he is going to make lots of trouble for our friends in Dominican Republic, Florida, and especially the Bahamas.

One couple from Brazil that we met at Magothy Marina a few years ago got a very late start from Florida and are in Georgetown, Bahamas, as I write. They have taken shelter at Emerald Bay Marina, but we are worried for their safely. Matthew will likely remain a Category 4 storm when it reaches them starting this evening. The force of such a storm is almost apocalyptic and the storm surge could be 10 to 15 feet in the Exumas.

When we sailed through the Bahamas in the spring, we stopped briefly at Rum Cay, an island that had been torn apart the previous year by Joaquin, a Category 3 when it hit. Matthew could prove even more destructive across a larger expanse of the Bahamas, which are barely above sea level.

And of course our hearts go out to the people of Haiti.

Another friend is in Biscayne Bay, just south of Miami. Matthew's track looked earlier like it might skirt Florida and present it with its back side -- a better outcome than the other side, due to the vagaries of cyclonic winds. Now it looks like it might be nudging west closer to the Florida coast. Not good.

For us, things are back to normal. We dodged a bullet, preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. Matthew was just getting started when it moved over us. We saw no more than 35 knots of wind -- and that in gusts. By comparison, the storm is now packing 100-knot sustained winds, with gusts as high as 130 knots. There is simply no comparison.